Objective

The objective of this project is to determine what happens when a test with two equally-likely outcomes is performed only a small number of times.

Introduction

A lot of times, people use very small sample sizes to evaluate the likelihood of an event taking place. But does the most likely outcome occur if an experiment is only performed a few times? How easy is it to draw the wrong conclusion if an unlikely event occurs?

Terms, Concepts and Questions to Start Background Research

Bernoulli trials

Bibliography

http://www.math.wichita.edu/history/topics/probability.html#bern-trials

Experimental Procedure

• Get any coin. Flip it three times. Record the results. Repeat twenty times.
• Flip it five times and record the results. Repeat this twenty times.
• Then flip it seven times, recording the results. Repeat twenty times.
• What are the most common sequences that result? Did you ever get an unlikely sequence? How does the result change as you flip three, five or seven times?

Variations

Show, using Bernoulli trials, what the likelihood of each outcome is.

Source: http://www.sciencebuddies.org

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